Hello Eagle Wealth Community,

Have any of these recent financial headlines made you a bit dizzy?  Nearly every day a breaking news report is released.  So how do we decide what the important economic indicators are?  We listen to our trusted experts.  Lately, these experts are saying “pay attention to the jobs market”. 

We measure the jobs market in many ways, but the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report seems to be of particular interest to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  The JOLTS report tells the Fed how many job openings there are each month.  It also shows how many people were hired, quit, or were laid off.

Given the above, there's no doubt the Fed welcomed the news illustrated in the chart below.

The Fed is looking for three key things in its fight to stabilize the economy.  A slowed Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index to fall, and the labor market to soften.  Now, GDP has already slowed, but as we all know, inflation has yet to be tamed, and the labor market is mixed at best.

This means the financial markets are in a “bad news is good news” phase.  Put another way, the bad news of fewer job openings is good news to Fed officials.

We understand this “bad is good” phase can be confusing, to say the least, so please reach out if you have any questions.

Until next week,
Your Eagle Wealth Team
 

EWM Teaching at COCC 

Do you have a friend or relative who could use some financial planning help?  Then we’ve got good news.  For over 12 years we’ve been volunteering at COCC, partnering with them on financial planning classes.  We’re big believers in the power of education and this is one of the ways we’re able to give back to our community.

This fall, we’ll teach in-person classes at Central Oregon Community College.  They’re filling fast so have your friends check out our website for details.

Personal Retirement Analysis Workshop:

• 11/8 and 11/10 from 6:00 pm – 8:00 pm, plus a one-on-one third class with a financial planner.

**These courses are not intended for current clients.  The planning we’ve done with you through personal meetings far exceeds what’s possible in a classroom of students.  Please remember though, if you’ve had any changes in your life that may affect your current plan, please call us so we can discuss and make any necessary updates.

The Week on Wall Street

Breathtaking Volatility

An above-consensus consumer inflation number sent stocks tumbling in early Thursday trading before inexplicably surging higher in a stunning reversal that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rally 1,500 points from its intraday low. Before reversing, stocks had touched levels last seen in 2020. Friday surrendered much of the previous day’s gains, sending stocks mostly lower for the week.⁴

The stock market began the week on a volatile note, with the Nasdaq hitting a two-year low. Recession fears and new export controls may limit U.S. companies from selling advanced semiconductor chips and related manufacturing equipment to China.⁵
 

Sticky Inflation

September’s inflation reports provided little evidence that inflation was moderating meaningfully. The Producer Price Index's first report on inflation showed a 0.4% increase in supplier prices over August and an 8.5% increase 12 months ago. While down from August's 8.7% rise, it was higher than market expectations.⁶

The subsequent release of the Consumer Price Index showed consumer prices rising 0.4% in September and 8.2% year-over-year. More troubling was core inflation (excludes energy and food prices), which gained 0.6% in September and registered an increase of 6.6% from a year ago–the biggest 12-month increase since August 1982.⁷

Disclosures and Footnotes

Any companies mentioned are for informational purposes only, and this should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of their securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance.

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2022}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2022}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2022}

^{4. CNBC, October 13, 2022}

^{5. CNBC, October 10, 2022}

^{6. CNBC, October 12, 2022}

^{7.  CNBC, October 13, 2022}

^{8. IRS.gov, August 2, 2022}

^{9. American Hiking Society, August 4, 2022}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.}