Hello,  

We hope this email finds you well!

You’ve seen the headlines—market selloffs, recession worries, and trade tensions have people on edge.

But here’s the thing: Market moves like this aren’t new, and they certainly aren’t the end of the story.

So, what’s really happening? And more importantly, what should you do about it?

What's Happening 

• Economic Uncertainty: Citigroup just downgraded U.S. equities to neutral, citing economic uncertainty. That doesn’t mean we’re heading off a cliff—it means investors are recalibrating their expectations.¹
• Trade Tensions: The U.S. slapped new tariffs on key imports, prompting immediate responses from Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. These moves add short-term volatility and long-term uncertainty (but it's too early to know for sure how these moves will play out).²
• Market Roller Coaster: The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all took hits, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst single-day drop since 2022 on Monday the 10th. Even Magnificent Seven stocks like Tesla and Nvidia were down significantly.³ However, markets pushed higher Friday, clawing back some losses for the week.⁴

Sure, all this can be scary when you see it dominating the headlines. But what is the bigger picture?

The Big Picture

Market turbulence can feel like a gut punch, but history tells us that patience pays. Take March 2000: The Nasdaq was flying high after a five-year rally, only to drop 60% over the next year. Brutal, right? But investors who stayed the course saw strong recoveries in the years that followed.⁵

Take a look at this sketch. Think about its message.
 

 We. Get. To. Decide. What. We. Focus. On.

When it comes to investing, that means you have a choice.

Left side: You can tune into the financial networks, go through endless cycles of “buy buy, sell sell,” obsess over the latest financial product, and deal with the apocalypse du jour while cycling through all the emotions that come with it.

OR…

Right side: You can focus on what actually matters when it comes to investing. And that's time. A very long time: decades.

The takeaway? Your investment strategy shouldn’t be dictated by headlines.

Looking Ahead

With key inflation data coming up, we could see more market swings. But staying grounded in a well-thought-out strategy is the difference between reacting emotionally and investing wisely.

Stick to Your Plan. Your investment strategy is built for the long haul, not week-to-week swings.

Market swings are normal, but you don’t have to go through them alone. We’re in this with you, through every market cycle. If you want to talk through anything, just reply—we’re here to help.

Sincerely,

Your Eagle Wealth Team


P.S. Happy St. Patrick’s Day! We’ve gathered some fun facts for your holiday: 

• It takes 50 pounds of dye to turn the Chicago River green, which lasts for a few hours to a couple of days.⁶
• The amount of cabbage produced on the holiday is 2.3 billion pounds.⁷
• There’s a 174% increase in beer sales on this day compared to the rest of the year.⁷
• In 2025, a leprechaun’s pot of gold is estimated to be worth $2.9 Million, assuming it contains 1,000 1-ounce pieces of gold.⁸

Business Returns Deadline

Today’s the deadline to file S-Corporation or Partnership returns.

Indicators of a Recession: What to Look For

Understanding economic cycles can help with financial planning and investment decisions, though it's always challenging to predict exactly when or if a recession might occur. Here are some key points to consider:

• Investors and economists have been worried about a recession for at least three years. Despite these concerns, markets have performed very well. This goes to show how difficult it is to forecast economic downturns.
• Recent labor market data shows mixed signals with February 2025 job growth of 151,000 (below expectations), unemployment edging up to 4.1%, and increases in part-time workers for economic reasons and people wanting jobs but not in the labor force as of March 7, 2025.
• Consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, has shown weakness with January retail sales dropping 0.9%, worse than expected, potentially signaling softer Q1 growth.

The chart below shows the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, which tracks unemployment rate increases as an early warning system for economic downturns.

This indicator is no longer signaling a recession, but this visualization helps put current labor market fluctuations in historical context, showing how today's readings compare to past recession triggers.

Remember that economic indicators often send mixed messages, and the economy has shown remarkable resilience despite challenges. A diversified portfolio aligned with your long-term goals remains the best approach regardless of near-term economic fluctuations.

<sup>1. Morningstar, 2025 [URL: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025031170/bearish-market-alarms-are-flashing-citis-latest-downgrade-may-add-fuel-to-the-fire]
2. CNBC, 2025 [URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/trump-raises-canadian-steel-aluminum-tariffs-to-50percent-in-retaliation-for-ontario-energy-duties.html?&qsearchterm=tariffs]
3. Yahoo Finance, 2025 [URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sinks-900-points-nasdaq-plunges-4-in-worst-day-since-2022-183552751.html]
4. The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025
5. Investopedia, 2024 [URL: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcom-bubble.asp#:~:text=The%C2%A0crash%C2%A0that,April%2024%2C%202015]
6. Businessinsider.com, March 17, 2020
7. Amware.com. 2023
8. Garfield Refining, 2025 [https://www.garfieldrefining.com/resources/blog/pot-of-gold/#:~:text=One%20can%27t%20help%20but,worth%20over%20a%20million%20dollars!]</sup>

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.  Copyright 2025 FMG Suite.}

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