Tech Sell-Off, Global Outage, and Election News – What to Know

Eagle Wealth Management |
 


 

Hello,

A lot has happened recently.

After weeks of gains, markets slid as investors took a step back from big technology stocks.1

At the same time, a global IT outage took major corporations offline across the world.

A shooter came close to assassinating Donald Trump at a campaign rally.3

President Joe Biden withdrew from the election, injecting more uncertainty into the tight race.2

It’s a lot.

What could all this mean for investors? Let’s discuss.

Crowdstrike, a global IT outsourcing company, took millions of Windows devices offline with a bad update.

Despite causing hours and days of chaos for airlines, banks, hospitals, and other companies, the economic impact of the outage is likely to be muted.4

However, it shows just how interconnected and fragile our technology infrastructure can be.

Markets bounced back quickly from the tech-triggered slide.2

It’s pretty common for markets to recover from a slide when overall sentiment or fundamentals haven't shifted

In this case, the quick correction was mostly concentrated in the tech sector and was related to investors shifting their positions away from some of the sector's biggest winners.

Let’s use this as a teachable moment:

One of the challenges of being a long-term investor is accepting down days and weeks. 

Investors who panic and sell miss out on the strong market days that often follow.

While markets rebounded back quickly this time, that’s not guaranteed. 

We’re expecting markets to remain volatile as investors position themselves ahead of major earnings reports and economic data.

We're watching and taking stock of data as it arrives.

What could a new Democratic presidential candidate mean for investors?

In the short term, extra uncertainty around the election could stoke volatility as traders revisit their bets.

However, in the medium to long term, the election isn’t likely to have much impact on markets at all - despite what the headlines might tell you.

Here’s a quick look at how the S&P 500 performed when each party held the White House.




As you can see, markets grew regardless of which party held the presidency.5

And - markets did better with a divided Congress.

That’s likely because a legislative branch split between parties makes it harder to pass new tax laws or other legislation that could affect business performance.

Bottom line: market fundamentals haven’t significantly changed but we expect more volatility ahead.

We're watching the market and economic data closely and we'll keep you informed along the way.
 
Prudently,

Your Eagle Wealth Team

 



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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks had a mixed, see-saw week as disappointing corporate reports unsettled investors who appeared to rotate away from some leading groups in favor of other names.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.75 percent. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.83 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.08 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.49 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.1
 

Q2 Corporate Reports Start

Last week began with some positive momentum, but after Tuesday’s close, two influential tech companies reported disappointing Q2 numbers, which soured sentiment. On Wednesday, the S&P dropped 2 percent, and the Nasdaq fell more than 3 percent.

Stocks attempted to rebound on Thursday on news that gross domestic product grew much faster than expected in Q2, but sellers swooped in near the close.3

Stocks rallied broadly on Friday after a positive inflation report. The personal consumption expenditures index, widely considered the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed only a slight uptick in June—in line with expectations.4
 

Watch The Rotation

July 26 saw the end of the third consecutive week in which the Dow led the other two averages and its fourth straight week of gains.

At the same time, the S&P and Nasdaq have been under pressure, with both posting losses for the second consecutive week.

So far in July, the Dow is up nearly 4 percent, the S&P is down slightly, and the Nasdaq is off by over 2 percent. That’s a marked change from earlier in the year when the Nasdaq led.5

 

 

 

Source: YCharts.com, July 27, 2024. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, July 22, to Friday, July 26. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.

 

Sources:

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-track-us-decline-224153088.html

2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-tech-roars-back-as-sp-500-nasdaq-surge-ahead-of-earnings-200038261.html

3. https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/23/politics/pennsylvania-state-police-commissioner-reveals-stunning-info-about-trump-shooting/index.html

4. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/investing/2024/07/19/us-stocks-uninterrupted-crowdstrike-outage/74469633007/

5. https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/an-advisors-guide-to-elections-and-the-markets/

Chart sources: https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/an-advisors-guide-to-elections-and-the-markets/

1. The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024

2. The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024

3. The Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2024

4. CNBC.com, July 26, 2024

5. The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024

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