Hello,

How do you feel about the state of the economy? In more contemporary terms, what are your "vibes" telling you?

Are you feeling confident and comfortable? Or are you feeling a nagging worry that things aren't going well?



If you're experiencing a disconnect between official economic data and your personal perception, you're not alone.

This phenomenon has recently been dubbed a "vibecession" in popular media - a term that captures the gap between economic indicators and public sentiment.

Officially, the economy is in pretty good shape.

✅ Recent data suggests that inflation is still cooling.¹
✅ The jobs market is still steaming ahead, with both wages and hiring up in May.²
✅ Markets have been on a tear, and the S&P 500 has hit 30+ record closes this year.³

By most measures, economic prospects are solid.

❌ But many Americans are still feeling pessimistic about the economy.

In a June survey, 70% of Americans reported that the economy was doing badly.⁴

Even when 61% said that their own personal financial situation was good or excellent.

That gap between data and opinion? That’s the "vibecession."

And the challenge is that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If too many people believe that the economy is floundering and a recession is imminent, it can absolutely drag on economic growth.

What’s contributing to the gap in perception?

It could be a lot of things.

Many Americans have been left out of the recent boom, and they're struggling with high prices.

Housing prices remain high and home ownership has become out of reach for many (especially young Americans).

We also have a 24-hour news cycle hammering us with gloomy headlines.

Bottom line: Though the vibes are weird, the economy is still doing well.

What's most important is that we don't let vibes push us away from the goals and plans we've created.

A recession may be on the horizon, but there's no way to know for sure if or when it could arrive.

If you’re looking for more information, we’re holding a live webinar this week to discuss the markets and economy with our colleagues at City National Rochdale. 

Please read below for more details and join us Wednesday at 1pm.

Warmly,

Your Eagle Wealth Team

You’re Invited — Live Webinar

Wednesday, July 17^th

1:00 pm PDT
 

Please join us for a live webinar this week to discuss the following:

• The driving forces of the economy right now.
• Inflation outlook
• 2024 election outlook
• Geopolitical volatility

Our founder, Chad Staskal, CFP®, will be joined by two very special guests from City National Rochdale - Charles Luke, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, and Robert Meckstroth, CFA, Portfolio Manager.

We’ll revisit what’s happened so far in 2024 and what the second half of the year may bring.

Featured Speakers
 

Chad Staskal, CFP®, CLU, ChFC
Principal and Owner
Eagle Wealth Management

Read more here

Charles Luke, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
City National Rochdale

Read more here

Robert Meckstroth,
CFA, CPWA®
Senior Portfolio Manager
City National Rochdale

Read more here

Webinar Q & A
Please send questions for our speakers to info@myeaglewealth.com  and we’ll do our best to answer them during the webinar.
 
The Details
The webinar is accessed via the zoom.com website so there is no call-in number.  Audio and video will not be activated on your computer.  Prior to the webinar, please test your system to ensure your computer is compatible.
 
Recording
Not available for the webinar?  Go to www.myeaglewealth.com/videos later that week to view the recorded version. 

WILL YOU JOIN US?
 

The Week on Wall Street

Stocks advanced last week as market leadership shifted amid fresh inflation data and quarterly corporate reports starting to roll in.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.87 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.59 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which has led all year, rose 0.25 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rallied 1.62 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.⁵

Dow Breaks 40,000 (Again)

Mega-cap tech led modest gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the first two days of the week, with the Dow posting modest losses both days.

But that narrow trading range didn’t last long as market leadership shifted midweek. Upbeat corporate earnings reports and milder-than-expected consumer inflation in June drove momentum in a handful of larger industrial and consumer stocks.^6,7

Q2 earnings season got into full swing later in the week, dominated mostly by financial and consumer-oriented companies. Markets seemed initially unfazed by better-than-expected reports from some money center banks. Some observers suggested higher interest rates may be one of the reasons for the market’s lukewarm response.⁸

The Dow ended the week with a solid gain after three consecutive weeks of trailing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow also closed above 40,000, the first time it had done so since May, and hit a 52-week intraday high on Friday.

Mixed Inflation News
Two inflation reports came out last week: PPI and CPI.

The Producer Price Index, which measures the change in wholesale prices, rose 2.6 percent in June year over year—its largest increase in 16 months. By contrast, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks consumer prices, showed that the pace of inflation slowed in June.

Markets shrugged off the conflicting data, instead embracing the cooler CPI data. The Fed is likely taking notes for its next Fed meeting, scheduled for July 30-31.⁹

^{Source: YCharts.com, July 13, 2024. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, July 8, to Friday, July 12. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.}

Sources:

1. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-federal-reserve-biden-8e1d14563d83f55e1773bcddd622bb2b

2. https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-d1d73005dbc40b081a555850a44e73d1

3. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/23/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

4. https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3899#economy

5. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

6. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

7. The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2024

8. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

9. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

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The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

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